About Propworthy

How it works, why it exists, and where to get help

What Propworthy Is

Propworthy is a sports prop research tool that runs Monte Carlo simulations on every MLB game, compares model probabilities against real sportsbook odds from 9 books, and surfaces where the books are mispriced.

It is not a tout service. It is not a "lock of the day" account. It is a research engine that shows you its math.

How It Works

01
Simulate

Every MLB game runs through 5,000 Monte Carlo iterations before first pitch, enhanced by LightGBM machine learning models trained on 141K historical game logs. Full game state: lineups, park factors, pitcher-batter matchups, recency-weighted form, Statcast expected stats. The output is a probability distribution across every possible outcome for every player.

02
Compare

We pull live lines from 9 sportsbooks. FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and six more. We remove the vig, and calculate implied probability. When the model disagrees with the books by a meaningful margin, that's edge.

03
Surface

Edges are ranked by tier (S/A/B) based on model confidence and signal strength. Value plays are ranked by edge size. Every edge shows model probability, book implied probability, edge percentage, and the contributing signals that drove the projection.

04
Grade

Every edge is graded the next morning against actual game outcomes. The results are public. We don't curate them. You can see exactly how the model performs over time.

Methodology

Simulation enginePA-level Monte Carlo with full 9-inning game state, enhanced by LightGBM ML models. Base runners, lineup cycling, pitcher matchups, park factors, platoon splits, Statcast priors. 5 trained models covering hits, total bases, home runs, strikeouts, and walks.
Iterations5,000 per game, every day before first pitch.
Sportsbooks9 books compared: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, BetRivers, Bovada, BetOnline, MyBookie, and more.
CalibrationModel probabilities are calibrated against real historical sportsbook lines. We purchased 28 days of historical odds data and backtested every edge calculation against real book prices.
Market selectionWe tested 11 player prop markets. 5 have dedicated ML models (hits, total bases, home runs, strikeouts, walks) and 3 are profitable for value plays: hits, total bases, and outs recorded. We disabled the rest because they weren't profitable. Most tools would keep showing them anyway.

Not a Tout Service

We don't sell locks. We don't post screenshots of parlays that hit. We don't have a Discord where someone promises to 10x your bankroll.

We have a model. We have a backtest against real sportsbook lines. We have a public grading page where every pick lives or dies in the open. If the model stops working, you'll see it before we tell you about it.

The edge is the product. The math is the pitch.

Responsible Gambling

Sports betting involves financial risk. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Propworthy is a research tool, not financial advice. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. All betting involves risk of loss.

Signs of Problem Gambling

  • Betting more than you can afford to lose
  • Chasing losses with larger bets
  • Borrowing money to gamble
  • Feeling restless or irritable when trying to stop
  • Lying to others about how much you gamble
  • Neglecting responsibilities because of gambling

Resources

National Council on Problem Gambling
1-800-522-4700 (24/7 helpline)
Visit
Gamblers Anonymous
Find a meeting near you
Visit
National Problem Gambling Helpline
Call or text 1-800-522-4700
Visit

You must be 21 years or older to place sports bets in most US jurisdictions. Please check your local laws before betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available.